An Iranian Goal in the Final Seconds

18 May 2010
The Iranian leadership has shown remarkable agility in its bid to gain time ahead of time US-Israeli pressure for its nuclear programme to become subject to full inspection, and to halt its uranium enrichment processes.

Its latest concession, then, to agree to low-enriched uranium being further processed outside the country, in Turkey and Brazil, came as no surprise. Iran won the round and scored a deadly goal into the US-Israeli net by signing the agreement with Turkey and Brazil in the last minutes or rather seconds before US efforts could succeed in securing a resolution from the UN Security Council to impose economic sanctions on Iran.

The Iranian authorities know very well how to play their cards at the right time without losing their strategic and sovereign positions. Their acceptance of the principle of exchange - that is to say, handing over 1200 kg of low-enriched uranium in exchange for 120 kg of 20 per cent enriched uranium to operate their nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes without undertaking to halt the enrichment process, which they are effectively carrying out these days - reshuffled all the cards. In addition, it gave the Iranian authorities' friends in Moscow and Beijing new ammunition to oppose the sanctions, which the United States seeks to impose.

United States' diplomacy to rally support for sanctions against Iran suffered a powerful, if not fatal blow and returned to square one, albeit temporarily. The concession that the Iranian Government made is in line with a previous US-French offer, and the main difference between them is the choice of Turkey as a venue of the aforementioned exchange process.

Iran hit two birds with one stone. First, it relieved the US pressure on the five permanent member states of the UN Security Council, particularly China and Russia, and embarrassed the US Administration diplomatically. Second, It won over both Turkey and Brazil, the two non-permanent members of the Security Council, when it rewarded them by making their mediation successful and giving this big concession exclusively to them.

It is only natural for the US Administration, which was surprised by the agreement, to cast doubt on the agreement, on the Iranian intentions behind it, and on the prospects of its success, by reminding people that Iran did not comply with previous agreements.

White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs said Iran's shipment of low-enriched uranium abroad would be a positive step but its insistence on continuing enrichment up to 20 per cent constitutes a direct violation of the UN Security Council resolutions.

Those who know the secrets of the Iranian policy say the Iranian authorities enjoy "flexibility" that is characterized by realism, which allows them to back down at the last moment. They refer to Imam Khomeyni's acceptance of a ceasefire with Iraq after eight years of war and to his famous statement that the agreement was like a poisoned chalice that he was compelled to drink.

The agreement with Turkey and Brazil was a tangible retreat reflecting carefully calculated "realism." Its importance can be understood from the state of confusion that currently prevails in the Western camp, led by the United States. This camp includes as members Israel, France, Germany, and Britain, in addition to other less important members, including some Gulf states.